Threshold Dynamics and Robust Control of Cassava Mosaic Disease in a Host–Vector System — Analytical Stability and a Framework for Stochastic Koopman-Based Forecasting

Publication Details

Publication Date

10/11/2026

Volume / Issue

Vol 1, Issue 6 (2026)

Article No.

037

Journal

British Journal of Contemporary Research

DOI

https://doi.org/10.67693/BJCR-SBYPVDU3

Received

14 Oct 2026

Views

26

Downloads

14

Abstract

Cassava mosaic disease (CMD) is transmitted by infectious whiteflies and infected planting material. We investigate a deliberately reduced two-state host–vector model, derive its reproduction threshold and equilibria, and formulate robust transmission suppression under interval uncertainty. Positive invariance and global disease-free stability for R₀ ≤ 1 are established analytically. Independently recomputed synthetic experiments examine subcritical, critical and supercritical trajectories, equilibrium branches and nine constrained control-allocation scenarios. For the illustrative baseline, R₀ = 2 and the endemic equilibrium is (0.5625, 0.4286). Worst-case control allocations enforce R꜀ ≤ 0.95 under prescribed upper transmission bounds; optimal allocations depend strongly on relative effort weights. These results concern a stylised model rather than calibrated field dynamics. Infected-cutting introduction, heterogeneous whitefly ecology and empirical validation remain outside its scope. Stochastic dynamics and Koopman forecasting are identified as future research rather than completed results.

License

This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License . Free to read, share, and adapt with attribution.